Twenty-year hiatus in rising temperatures has climate scientists puzzled
BY:GRAHAM LLOYD, ENVIRONMENT EDITOR From: The Australian March 30, 2013 12:00AM


DEBATE about the reality of a two-decade pause in global warming and what it means has made its way from the sceptical fringe to the mainstream.

In a lengthy article this week, The Economist magazine said if climate scientists were credit-rating agencies, then climate sensitivity - the way climate reacts to changes in carbon-dioxide levels - would be on negative watch but not yet downgraded.

Another paper published by leading climate scientist James Hansen, the head of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, says the lower than expected temperature rise between 2000 and the present could be explained by increased emissions from burning coal.

For Hansen the pause is a fact, but it's good news that probably won't last.

International Panel on Climate Change chairman Rajendra Pachauri recently told The Weekend Australian the hiatus would have to last 30 to 40 years "at least" to break the long-term warming trend.


But the fact that global surface temperatures have not followed the expected global warming pattern is now widely accepted.

Research by Ed Hawkins of University of Reading shows surface temperatures since 2005 are already at the low end of the range projections derived from 20 climate models and if they remain flat, they will fall outside the models' range within a few years.

"The global temperature standstill shows that climate models are diverging from observations," says David Whitehouse of the Global Warming Policy Foundation.

"If we have not passed it already, we are on the threshold of global observations becoming incompatible with the consensus theory of climate change," he says.

Whitehouse argues that whatever has happened to make temperatures remain constant requires an explanation because the pause in temperature rise has occurred despite a sharp increase in global carbon emissions.

The Economist says the world has added roughly 100 billion tonnes of carbon to the atmosphere between 2000 and 2010, about one-quarter of all the carbon dioxide put there by humans since 1750. This mismatch between rising greenhouse gas emissions and not-rising temperatures is among the biggest puzzles in climate science just now, The Economist article says.

"But it does not mean global warming is a delusion."

The fact is temperatures between 2000 and 2010 are still almost 1C above their level in the first decade of the 20th century.

"The mismatch might mean that for some unexplained reason there has been a temporary lag between more carbon dioxide and higher temperatures in 2000-2010.

"Or it might mean that the 1990s, when temperatures were rising fast, was the anomalous period."

The magazine explores a range of possible explanations including higher emissions of sulphur dioxide, the little understood impact of clouds and the circulation of heat into the deep ocean.

But it also points to an increasing body of research that suggests it may be that climate is responding to higher concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide in ways that had not been properly understood before.

"This possibility, if true, could have profound significance both for climate science and for environmental and social policy," the article says.

There are now a number of studies that predict future temperature rises as a result of man-made carbon dioxide emissions at well below the IPCC best estimate of about 3C over the century.

The upcoming IPCC report is expected to lift the maximum possible temperature increase to 6C.

The Research Council of Norway says in a non-peer-reviewed paper that the best estimate concludes there is a 90 per cent probability that doubling CO2 emissions will increase temperatures by only 1.2C to 2.9C, the most likely figure being 1.9C.

Another study based on the way the climate behaved about 20,000 years ago has given a best guess of 2.3C.

Other forecasts, accepted for publication, have reanalysed work cited by the IPCC but taken account of more recent temperature data and given a figure of between 1C and 3C.

The Economist says understanding which estimate is true is vital to getting the best response.

"If as conventional wisdom has it, global temperatures could rise by 3C or more in response to a doubling of emissions, then the correct response would be the one to which most of the world pays lip service; rein in the warming and the greenhouse gases causing it," the article says.

"If, however, temperatures are likely to rise by only 2 degrees Celsius in response to a doubling of carbon emissions (and if the likelihood of a 6 degrees Celsius is trivial) the calculation might change," it says.

"Perhaps the world should seek to adjust to (rather than stop) the greenhouse-gas splurge.

"There is no point buying earthquake insurance if you don't live in an earthquake zone."

According to The Economist, "given the hiatus in warming and all the new evidence, a small reduction in estimates of climate sensitivity would seem to be justified." On face value, Hansen agrees the slowdown in global temperature rises can be seen as "good news".

But he is not ready to recalculate the Faustian bargain that weighs the future cost to humanity of continued carbon dioxide emissions.

Hansen argues that the impact of human carbon dioxide emissions has been masked by the sharp increase in coal use, primarily in China and India.

Increased particulate and nitrogen pollution has worked in the opposite direction of rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.

Another paper published in Geophysical Research Letters on research from the University of Colorado Boulder found small volcanoes, not more coal power stations in China, were responsible for the slowdown in global warming.

But this did not mean that climate change was not a problem.

"Emissions from volcanic gases go up and down, helping to cool or heat the planet, while greenhouse gases from human activity just continue to go up," author Ryan Neely says.

Hansen's bottom line is that increased short-term masking of greenhouse gas warming by fossil fuel particulate and nitrogen pollution represents a "doubling down" of the Faustian bargain, an increase in the stakes.

"The more we allow the Faustian debt to build, the more unmanageable the eventual consequences will be," he says.

Drive Nacho Drive!

I heart Drive Nacho Drive!
These folks are modern heroes.

They quit their jobs, bought a VW Bus, and started living their dream of driving around the world.

I was very close to buying a VW Bus back in 2011 but ended up going the Harley Davidson solo route instead (which was pretty awesome).

They have great pics of Kuala Lumpur on their latest post.

Click it.  You know you want to.

http://www.drivenachodrive.com/

Plus, they have monkeys.

"4 thumbs.  Take that, Evolution!"

Not Kuala Lumpur.

As Kevin surveyed  his parents' home he thought, "When I grow up I'm getting as far away from Florida as humanly possible."

 Or,

 Kevin's novel approach for avoiding the tiresome and dangerous migratory path of his peers was stymied when he failed the driver's exam.

This story brought back a lot of memories.

http://www.myfoxny.com/story/21793733/cops-ny-mom-turned-on-dryer-with-her-son-inside

Remember the good ol' days when sticking a toddler in the dryer was just plain fun?
Well, I am sorry to report that those days have long since past.
Now it's an issue for DeFaCS and "the police".
Both are a real buzz-kill if you ask me.

I've written before about spending a good 75% of my childhood in the trunk of "the Source of the Trouble's" Dodge Dart.
What I didn't mention was that my brothers were kind enough to put me in the dryer on those days when "tSofT" was just too busy for a little carbon monoxide poisoning, aka, a drive thru town.

(Hint for new parents: a little carbon monoxide CAN be used as an effective disciplinary device.)
(Guess who never forgot to take out the trash again?)

(Are you folks starting to get the picture I've been painting these past many months?)


Many is the day that my brothers and I wiled away the afternoon hours (before "tSofT" got home from work of course) bouncing 'round the inside of a warm Whirlpool.
Them on the outside laughing hysterically, me on the inside screaming bloody murder.
Boy, it just brings tears to my eye to think that in today's America such simple pleasures would be denied our young ones.
There is something wrong about being labeled a "criminal" for giving your brother a little tumble 'round the dryer and the truth is they toughened me up, even if that was incidental to the goal of amusing themselves.
Later, when I would wrestle with friends or get in fights at school I would often win because I learned to fight dirty.
There is no win or lose when you fight with your 3 older brothers, there is only:
A. not being killed or maimed, and
B. not tattling to "tSotT", which would result in an even more heinous beat-down the minute she turned her back.
It's exactly like prison.

Still, something is being lost in all this effort to keep us all safe.
I think all this trying to keep people safe is resulting in a nation of self-important, weak-kneed sissies.
Friends and family have seen me kick a lot of sand around here these past few weeks because of all the energy I have to spend "being safe" on the big project downtown.
We have to wear hard hats and safety goggles and even orange fluorescent vests.
You read that right.
We are installing window film on interior office windows, on the 47th floor, and have to wear the same orange fluorescent vests that road crews wear.
To keep us safe.

Except I don't feel any safer.
Because I was not unsafe to begin with.

But to be fair, I coulda used that hard hat back in the Whirlpool.
___________________________________________________________________________________

Cops: NY mom turned on dryer with her son inside

Posted: Mar 26, 2013 8:07 AM EDT
Updated: Mar 26, 2013 8:07 AM EDT
GATES, N.Y. (AP) — Authorities say a western New York woman has been charged after police say she turned on a clothes dryer while her 2-year-old son was inside.

Police in the Rochester suburb of Gates tell local media that 17-year-old Jasmine Brown allowed her toddler to climb inside the dryer Saturday in the laundry room at St. Joseph's Villa, a group home with a program for young mothers.

Officials say the dryer was on for less than 30 seconds before another person intervened and removed the boy. An ambulance crew that checked out the child determined he didn't need to be taken to a hospital.

Police charged Brown with reckless endangerment and endangering the welfare of a child.

She pleaded not guilty at her arraignment and is being held Tuesday in the Monroe County Jail on $50,000 bail.

Read more: http://www.myfoxny.com/story/21793733/cops-ny-mom-turned-on-dryer-with-her-son-inside#ixzz2OgHUr88L

Cardinal Martinola V of The Church of El Pinche Pirata del Fuego (Motto:  now 85% less gropey) sent in this lovely rendition of a picture of a van on the beach with a picture of the van on the beach on the side of the van.

I know.
It blew my mind too.

One day, my friends, one day......

Also, ties in nicely with my discussion some weeks ago with Dear Reader Sharon about the late, great, Sammy Johns and his hit song, "Chevy Van" - obviously written about those erstwhile years a young Sammy spent roaming the hi-ways and bi-ways of this great land assaulting teenage runaways.

Could this be the real, live, home of The Church of El Pinche Pirata del Fuego?
A "bricks and mortar" Religious Preparatory Academy?
An actual home for Wayward Women?

Could be.
I can dream, yes?

The former home of Relapse Theater is for sale.
Before it was a theater it was church.
I've always wanted a church.

Imagine:  yours truly, El Pinche Pirata del Fuego, at the pulpit, giving fiery sermons on the moral imperative of properly training all Atlanta bartenders in the delicate art of the double pour.

I like the sound of this.

The Reverend El Pinche Pirata del Fuego is here to save you!

Well, this not good news:

I Googled - 2008 Ford Econoline Van, transmission trouble and got this.

Apparently, this is very common.
My van has less than 62,000 miles on it now and it might very well need a new transmission - still waiting to hear from my mechanic.

By comparison, the last work van was a 2001 Dodge and it ran very well for over 200,000 miles and I never had a major problem with it - lots of brakes and rotors, a couple water pumps, but never a blown tranny.

"Ford Tough" my ass.

TRANSMISSION FAILURE

2008 FORD ECONOLINE

9.3

Really Awful

Typical Repair Cost:

$2,100.00

Average Mileage:

58,667 miles

Total Complaints:

3 complaints

Most Common Solutions:

1. replace transmission (2 reports)
2. not sure (1 reports)

Get free help with your lemon!

Pick your state:  AL AK AZ AR CA CO CT DE FL GA HI ID IL IN IA KS KY LA ME MD MA MI MN MS MO MT NE NV NH NJ NM NY NC ND OH OK OR PA RI SC SD TN TX UT VT VA WA WV WI WY     

I drink because I care.

It was a long week that included:

Being yelled at by the big project super.  (P.S.  He was wrong.  A lot wrong and continued to yell/harangue.)
Not being paid for the project that I was on while being yelled at.
A great deal of very expensive, unusable film.
An irritated architect issuing ultimatums.
Realizing that the architect would not have issued the aforementioned ultimatum if he had taken my advice 3 weeks ago.
The extra help I intended to use, showing up at the time he was supposed to be on the job, and announcing that he wasn't going to do the work (and then asking for money.)

Hello, DumDum.

A funeral, where I ran into DumDum.
Missing my nieces wedding because of all of the work + the ultimatum + not being paid.
More discussions about commercial liability insurance than anyone not involved with an accident claim should ever have.


The hits continued coming this afternoon when the work van broke down on 10th Street.


After rescuing "the amazing", I drove straight to The Family Dog for a little therapy, aka "many car bombs" and an attitude adjustment.

the amazing

Much alcohol, a great hamburger, and a long nap later, and I almost feel human again.


But, I still have to work tomorrow.

I am grateful to have the work - it's the largest job by dollar value and square footage that I've sold in my career - but I wish it was spread out a bit more so we could breathe a little and not ignore all of our other clients.
Eventually, I will finish and be paid and I will take a long, long ride on my bike.

I did get good news in the form of an offer to travel internationally for work.
If that goes well, could lead to a much larger job here in the states.
Yay!





The downside is that "the amazing" doesn't have a passport even though I've been telling him to get one for at least the past year, ever since I received a request for info/proposal to do work at The Ba'hai World Center in Israel.  So I may going solo unless he can get it done.
That happened on March 22nd of last year.

So to summarize:  life.

I sent a note to the kennel where Mike was born about what a great dog he's turned out to be.

They've put up all the info up I sent and the pictures of him as well.

Check out more Mike here:
https://kraftwerkk9.com/2013/03/nikolai-mikhal-vom-kraftwerk-to-appear-in-hunger-games-sequel/ 

and since yesterday was St. Patrick's Day

I found this old email I sent to a friend just before I left on my trip and had to laugh at my own smart-assery.

Enjoy:



Hi all,

Trying to leave on my trip this week - delays, delays.
Good Grief Texas is going to be hot, hot, hot!
will keep everyone posted as to arrivals, departures, detours, delays, incapacitations, and incarcerations as things progress.
Just finished watching the last couple of episodes of  "The Long Way Down"  - the actor Ewan MacGregor and friends riding BMW enduro bikes from London to Cape town, South Africa.
Amazing to see whether you like motorcycles or not - 85 days of travel thru 18 countries.  Highly recommended and makes me want to hit the road asap.

I have reserved a blog space (yes, very narcissistic and fairly gay) at http://elpinchepirata.blogspot.com/  (still not as bad as Facebook)
Will post pictures and the amazing story of my journey as time allows - you know, the triumphs, tragedies,  remarkable insights, successes, and philosophical ramblings, as filtered thru the unique perspective, witty narrative, and often thought provoking, poignant, heartbreaking, and sometimes staggering genius of a truly iconic American voice
(yes, me)
(jerk)

told ya'

This article from The Mail Online - not exactly a neo-conservative bastion of arch-right wing extremist journalism has published recent findings that the warnings and dire predictions about global warming have been *gasp* wildly inaccurate.

Read it and weep commies -

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2294560/The-great-green-1-The-hard-proof-finally-shows-global-warming-forecasts-costing-billions-WRONG-along.html

Honey laundering sounds sexier than it is.

Ms. X got me to try and also actually enjoy some of the local "raw" honey that Whole Foods sells last year.
It looks kind of cloudy or even muddy but tastes delicious as all the natural, free range, bee stuff isn't filtered out.
It's science - "bee stuff" is good for you.
I'm pretty sure Albert Einstein said that back in the '30's - probably before the whole E=mc(sq.) thing.
Little known fact:  the man loved bees.
True story.
Hand to God.

But it makes this article on imported Chinese honey all the more relevant.
A large honey producer in the U.S. has been fined $2 million for buying large quantities of Chinese honey and then repackaging it as there own.

http://www.treehugger.com/corporate-responsibility/honey-laundering-exposed-industry-giant-admits-mislabeling-chinese-honey.html

Also, the ultra clear type filtered honey doesn't taste as good as the raw stuff and it doesn't contain the pollen, which is part of what makes the honey "healthier" to eat.
Without the pollen it's essentially just a jar of gooey sugar.

http://www.treehugger.com/green-food/grocery-store-honey-not-actually-honey.html


And before you call me anti-Chinese, it is relevant to note that the Chinese people themselves stopped eating IKEA meatballs when it became public that the meatballs were made in China.

This never ends well in the movies.

http://www.treehugger.com/natural-sciences/scientists-successfully-create-living-embryo-extinct-species.html


According to this article from Treehugger.com ( I hate saying that), scientists were able to create a living embryo from an extinct species of frogs.
I like "frogs" as much as the next guy (can I get an Amen!?!) but I thought our national focus was on the woolly mammoth(?).
Who the heck is in charge of returning lost species to the planet anyhow?
That Obama has really dropped the ball on just about every front.
This is total B.S.

Look - you can either gear your science toward returning slimy amphibians who will do nothing but keep you awake at night and give you warts, OR, you can have big, fuzzy elephants.

It's a no-brainer here, people.

Do you want this:

"Duuuuuudddde......"

Or this:

It's an easy choice, folks.

All intelligent, free thinking, and fair minded people would find that the woolly mammoth is a far superior extinct life form than any old frog, of which we have plenty BTW.

Elephants are disappearing faster than a scoop of Ben and Jerry's in front of Adele so repopulating certainly wouldn't hurt AND, if things got really bad you could always eat them.

It's a win/win in my book.

There are far too few cuddly creatures that you could BBQ in a pinch.  

Not saying it's my first choice, just saying leave your options open.

Have you ever tried to barbecue a frog?

Horrendous.

That skin absolutely WILL NOT hold the sauce, I will tell you that from hard won experience, my friend.

A dry rub maybe, but definitely not the sauce.

Most modern art escapes me.
I apparently don't have the mental acuity to see anything but splatters of paint or a jar of urine when presented with paint splatters or an angry gay man's pee-pee in a mason jar but this work is pretty awesome.
Maybe because the artist shows real skill rather than just the emotional maturity of a toddler throwing a tantrum.

http://www.treehugger.com/sustainable-product-design/artist-carves-haunting-natural-forms-discarded-objects-maskull-laserre.html

I found this photo of a protester on the website:  http://everything-everywhere.com/


He's kind of a bad ass.

We've been working nights this week down at the big project in midtown Atlanta.
It's grueling, meticulous work.
The attention to detail on each installed piece of film turns your mind to mush after just a few hours.
Which is why I went to The Clermont Lounge late last night.
To re-hydrate my shriveling brain in a can of Icehouse.

(Never, ever drink anything that isn't delivered in a sealed container when you're at The Clermont.)

And I'm glad I went because just as I was saying hi to "D" the doorman, and old black man walked past me, stopped and pointed, and said, "Snake!  Snake Plissken!"  and then walked off.

Well done, sir.

Well done.

Patch is on the wrong eye, dude.

For infants, bonding is crucial to survival.
When a newborn cub is rejected by it's mother it usually dies - not just because of lack of nutrition.
Zookeepers have known this for a longtime and the pairings of baby somethings with adult something else's can get quite odd.
And because no good deed goes unpunished:

Photographic evidence of Chupacabra

I was waiting on a friend to join me for dinner and decided to crop and edit a couple of my road trip pictures when I discovered how close to being eaten by the mythical "goat-sucker" I had truly come.

This is the photo taken on PCH last July:

Now, if we zoom in on the rocks by to the right:

Du, dA, DUNNNNNN!!!!!


Seriously,  What the hell is that?
Is that a bobcat?
An illusion?
An enigma wrapped in a mystery?

Meiko "Stuck On You" Guitar Center Sessions on DIRECTV

I just saw Meiko on Guitar Center "Sessions" yesterday.

I am totally charmed by her.
This is a great song and certainly not hurt by her being really cute, and also from Roberta, Georgia.
Yay for the sorta' local girl!

"The Amazing" and I are on site this morning at the big A & B we, of course, had to come up with a "Safety Plan".

This is what I have so far.

CAUTION! 

Handsome young go-getters at work.

Open door slowly. 

(And try not to stare.)